By: Abdullah Bugis
Journalist and Writer, based in Kuala Lumpur
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency has sent ripples across Southeast Asia, where the policies and dynamics of U.S. foreign relations directly affect economic, security, and diplomatic landscapes. Trump’s stance on issues like trade, defense, and relations with China is anticipated to shape the region’s strategic choices, especially as ASEAN countries balance their ties with both Washington and Beijing. Below is an analysis of how Trump’s presidency could affect specific ASEAN nations and what each country should consider in response.
- Indonesia
As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia is likely to be affected by Trump’s emphasis on trade deficits and protectionist measures. If Trump reinstates tariffs or reviews trade agreements, Indonesia’s export-driven sectors may feel the strain. Additionally, Indonesia’s cautious stance toward China aligns with Trump’s opposition to Beijing’s growing influence. Jakarta should prioritize diversifying trade partners within ASEAN and deepening ties with non-U.S. markets while continuing collaboration with the U.S. on counterterrorism and maritime security.
- Malaysia
Malaysia’s strong trade ties with the U.S. may face challenges under Trump’s “America First” economic policies. Given Trump’s scrutiny of trade imbalances, Malaysia might face heightened demands on fair trade practices. Kuala Lumpur, which maintains close economic links with China, will also need to balance this relationship carefully, especially if Trump intensifies his tough stance on Beijing. Malaysia should focus on diversifying its exports to reduce dependence on both the U.S. and China and consider strengthening intra-ASEAN trade.
- Thailand
Thailand’s position as a U.S. ally and a strategic partner of China places it in a delicate position. Under Trump, the U.S. is expected to ramp up its Indo-Pacific strategy, requiring Thailand’s involvement in security operations, especially in the South China Sea. Trump’s focus on defense spending could open opportunities for Thailand to modernize its military in cooperation with the U.S. However, Bangkok should approach this carefully to avoid alienating China. Strengthening ASEAN centrality in its diplomacy would allow Thailand to contribute to regional security without taking sides.
- Philippines
The Philippines has traditionally been a close U.S. ally, and under Trump, defense cooperation is likely to deepen. Trump’s strong stance against China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea may embolden the Philippines in its own claims. However, this could provoke further tensions with Beijing. Manila should be prepared to leverage U.S. security support while maintaining its trade and diplomatic relations with China. A balanced approach could allow the Philippines to safeguard its sovereignty without becoming embroiled in major power conflicts.
- Vietnam
Vietnam’s export-based economy could face obstacles if Trump reintroduces tariffs on foreign goods, impacting Vietnam’s robust trade relationship with the U.S. However, Trump’s hawkish stance on China aligns well with Vietnam’s interests, particularly in terms of maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam should seek trade diversification and strengthen ties with the EU and other ASEAN countries to cushion against potential U.S. trade disruptions. Additionally, deepening security cooperation with the U.S. could enhance Vietnam’s position against China’s assertiveness in the region.
- Cambodia
Cambodia’s close relationship with China could come under scrutiny if Trump takes a more aggressive stance against Beijing’s influence in Southeast Asia. Given Cambodia’s strategic dependence on Chinese investments, Phnom Penh may face diplomatic pressure from Washington. Cambodia should aim to diversify its sources of foreign aid and investment, especially from ASEAN neighbors, to avoid overreliance on China. Diplomatically, Cambodia can benefit from aligning more closely with ASEAN’s principle of neutrality to avoid isolation.
- Brunei
Brunei, a small but strategically located nation, has significant stakes in the South China Sea. Under Trump, Brunei may feel pressured to take a clearer stance regarding U.S. efforts to counterbalance China in the region. Brunei should engage actively within ASEAN on regional security while reinforcing diplomatic ties with the U.S. for maritime security support. Maintaining a neutral stance will help Brunei preserve stable relations with China.
- Laos
Laos has limited direct engagement with the U.S., but it may be indirectly affected by Trump’s policies toward China, given Laos’s deep reliance on Chinese investments. While it is likely to retain its alignment with Beijing, Laos should still seek to expand its economic relationships within ASEAN to mitigate potential impacts of a U.S.-China confrontation in the region.
- Myanmar
Myanmar’s situation remains complex due to ongoing political and humanitarian issues. Trump’s administration could increase sanctions or diplomatic pressure depending on Myanmar’s internal developments, especially regarding human rights. Myanmar should focus on rebuilding international relations through ASEAN and seeking regional development support, especially from neighbors and multilateral agencies.
- Singapore
As a financial hub and diplomatic bridge between East and West, Singapore will continue to play a critical role in U.S.-ASEAN relations under Trump. While Trump’s “America First” policy could complicate trade agreements, Singapore’s role in the Indo-Pacific strategy remains significant. Singapore should leverage its neutral diplomatic stance to facilitate dialogue between the U.S. and China while strengthening its own security and economic resilience.
Trump’s return to office is expected to bring renewed emphasis on the Indo-Pacific strategy with a focus on curbing China’s influence. This could mean increased U.S. naval presence in the South China Sea, potential arms deals with ASEAN allies, and renewed calls for ASEAN countries to align with U.S. policies on trade and security.
Given this landscape, ASEAN countries should consider the following strategies:
- Strengthen ASEAN Unity and Centrality: A unified ASEAN response to U.S.-China tensions will allow the bloc to manage external pressures more effectively. ASEAN should reinforce its principles of neutrality and regional cooperation to avoid being caught in the crossfire between the U.S. and China.
- Diversify Economic and Trade Partnerships: In response to Trump’s potential protectionist policies, ASEAN countries should work to reduce their dependency on U.S. and Chinese markets by strengthening intra-ASEAN trade and exploring new markets such as the EU, India, and the Middle East.
- Enhance Security Cooperation with U.S. Prudently: While the U.S. may encourage ASEAN to increase security measures in the Indo-Pacific, countries should assess their commitments carefully to avoid antagonizing China. Increased defense cooperation with the U.S. should be balanced with efforts to maintain a stable relationship with China.
- Leverage Sustainable Development Initiatives: Trump’s past climate policies suggest a potential decrease in U.S. support for environmental projects. ASEAN can capitalize on global trends toward green investment by seeking partnerships with other nations and organizations committed to sustainable development.
Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency presents both challenges and opportunities for ASEAN. By remaining unified, balancing diplomatic ties, and diversifying economically, ASEAN can navigate the complexities of Trump’s foreign policy while protecting its regional interests and autonomy.