BRIN Highlights Armenia Model as Indonesia Navigates Multi-Alignment Strategy

Indonesia’s diplomatic direction is under the spotlight after joining the Board of Peace (BoP), a body formed by United States President Donald Trump. Analysts warn the move requires caution, arguing the forum is heavily shaped by Washington’s dominance.

“The Board of Peace is highly centralized and personal. It is led not by an institution of the United States government, but by Donald Trump directly. All authority and approvals rest in his hands, including veto power over any decision produced,” said Idham Badruzaman, a peace and political transformation expert at Muhammadiyah University of Yogyakarta (UMY), as quoted on the university’s official website.

Responding to Indonesia’s latest diplomatic step, the National Research and Innovation Agency’s (BRIN) Political Research Center held a discussion on “proactive hedging” as a foreign policy approach, using Armenia as a case study. The strategy encourages states to act proactively and help shape regional and global order, rather than merely reacting to major-power moves.

The approach has been pursued by Armenia, a small landlocked country positioned at the crossroads of West Asia and Eastern Europe. Through proactive hedging, Armenia has sought a more active role amid global political turbulence, including building military cooperation with France and India and participating in various NATO initiatives.

Armenia’s Four Pillars of Proactive Hedging Diplomacy

Doctoral candidate at the Indonesian International Islamic University (UIII) and former researcher at Armenia’s National Academy of Sciences, Ararat Konstanian, said proactive hedging rests on four main pillars:

1. Status building, meaning launching regional initiatives to gain global recognition.

2. Normative leverage, meaning putting forward peace proposals or regional projects to help end conflict.

3. Active diplomacy through direct engagement with all parties to a conflict, without fully relying on international mediators.

4. Strategic diversification by widening security and economic partnerships.

Why Indonesia Is Being Asked to Look at Armenia’s Diplomatic Playbook

Armenia’s diplomatic maneuvering has also amplified its economic profile internationally. Beyond membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia has stepped up cooperation with China by developing infrastructure projects designed to link the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with its own Crossroads of Peace project.

Armenia has also drawn strategic investment from the United States, including the procurement of NVIDIA high-end chips to support the development of a national artificial intelligence (AI) center. BRIN researchers say Armenia’s experience may offer relevant insights for Indonesia’s evolving foreign policy priorities.

“This discussion provides an analytical understanding of proactive hedging as a foreign policy strategy, and also serves as a space for reflection to reassess Indonesia’s strategic position, particularly under President Prabowo’s administration,” Ararat said, as quoted on BRIN’s website.

Meanwhile, Athiqah Nur Alami, head of BRIN’s Political Research Center, argued that Indonesia under President Prabowo Subianto has shifted from non-alignment toward multi-alignment—expanding international partnerships while maintaining strategic independence.

“Armenia’s experience shows how a country can ‘dance’ carefully among major powers in order to remain independent and effective in managing its national interests. Armenia’s success in attracting high-tech investment, such as NVIDIA chips, is also an important note for Indonesia as it navigates global technology competition,” she said.

She added that proactive hedging diplomacy—such as Armenia’s model—could offer a roadmap for states to do more than simply endure geopolitical storms driven by bigger powers. Middle powers, she said, can position themselves as connectors for peace and shared prosperity.

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