OPEC Adjusts Crude Outlook: 2026 Growth Slows as 2027 Projections Rise
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- OPEC has adjusted its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downward to 1.2 million bpd, a decrease from its previous 1.4 million bpd estimate, while raising its 2027 outlook to 1.5 million bpd.
- The report highlights a significant regional divide, with non-OECD nations expected to drive the majority of market expansion, accounting for 1.1 million bpd of the total growth projected for 2026.
- Despite the slight revision for 2026, OPEC characterizes the growth as “solid,” supported by a 200,000 bpd upward revision for 2027 that suggests resilient long-term global appetite for crude.
Jakarta – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on Wednesday its latest projections for global oil markets, revealing a downward revision for demand growth in 2026 while signaling a more optimistic outlook for the following year.
In its much-anticipated Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on May 13, the Vienna-based organization stated that global oil demand is now expected to grow by a “solid” 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year (yoy) in 2026. This figure represents a slight cooling from the previous estimate of 1.4 million bpd issued in April.
However, the outlook for 2027 appears more robust. OPEC analysts have adjusted their forecasts upward, predicting global demand to rise by approximately 1.5 million bpd (yoy). This marks an increase of roughly 200,000 bpd compared to the projections provided just a month ago.
Geographically, the divergence between developed and emerging economies remains a key theme in the report. Demand within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states is expected to see a modest uptick of 100,000 bpd in 2026.
In contrast, the lion’s share of market expansion will be driven by non-OECD nations. These emerging markets are projected to see demand surge by approximately 1.1 million bpd during the same period.
Looking further ahead to 2027, the report anticipates that OECD demand will grow by 200,000 bpd. Meanwhile, non-OECD countries are expected to maintain their momentum as the primary engine of global consumption, with demand growth forecasted to hit 1.3 million bpd.
Indonesianpost.com | Antara
