Scientists Warn El Niño Could Push Global Heat to a New High in 2027

Climate scientists and meteorological agencies around the world say an El Niño that could develop in the Pacific Ocean this year may help push global temperatures to a new peak in 2027. The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have both said some climate models are already projecting the possible emergence of El Niño.

However, both agencies cautioned that the projections remain uncertain. Experts also say it is still too early to treat the outlook as a firm forecast. Even so, signals in Pacific sea-surface temperatures suggest El Niño could form in 2026.

The cycle of Pacific Ocean temperature variability known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to extreme weather events worldwide. El Niño forms when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are warmer than average.

El Niño typically lifts global average temperatures and, for regions such as Indonesia and Australia, is often associated with hotter and drier conditions. “Some models indicate a possible development of El Niño from June,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest Southern Hemisphere monitoring report, as quoted by The Guardian on Sunday (Feb. 8, 2026).

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warned the lead time is still “too long” to confidently predict El Niño. NOAA also flagged the possibility of El Niño forming, while warning of uncertainty across weather and climate models and simulations.

Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University and former head of long-range forecasting at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said a large volume of warm water is currently stored in the western tropical Pacific.

Under normal conditions, when the trade winds weaken, that warm water mass flows back east toward waters off South America, raising sea-surface temperatures there—one of the defining signals of El Niño.

“Those models predict that will happen during autumn (in Australia), which broadly aligns with the outlook,” Watkins said.

He said “early signs of El Niño are there,” but stressed it remains too soon to say whether the phenomenon will fully develop. Meanwhile, ENSO expert Prof. Andrea Taschetto of the University of New South Wales said La Niña is now close to ending, and forecasting what comes next remains difficult.

Taschetto said the current odds of either El Niño or neutral ENSO conditions emerging between June and August stand at 50-50—“like flipping a coin.” Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) also indicates the country is in a transition phase, shifting from weak La Niña toward neutral conditions in February–March 2026.

The past three years have been the hottest on record. In January, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said 2025 was the hottest year ever measured, following 2023 and 2024.

Zeke Hausfather, a researcher with Berkeley Earth, said the El Niño that formed in mid-2023 and ended around April 2024 likely raised global temperatures by about $0.12$ degrees Celsius in 2024.

“If El Niño develops later this year, it would likely peak around November–January and would mainly affect global surface temperatures in 2027 rather than 2026. That’s why I expect 2027 to set a new global temperature record,” he said.

Watkins agreed that if El Niño develops, its influence on global temperatures would be stronger in 2027. “I would hesitate to bet there won’t be a new hottest year on record,” he said.

Watkins also emphasized that global warming—driven primarily by fossil fuel burning—has now become so strong that it is starting to outweigh natural year-to-year temperature swings. He added that the world is increasingly unlikely to be surprised by new heat records, because even without a strong El Niño, global temperatures can still surge.

“I don’t think we’ll be surprised anymore. We don’t need El Niño to push global temperatures up,” he said.

Climate change is also lengthening dry spells in Europe, where warm winds are leaving vegetation more prone to burning.

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