Indonesian Crude Price Climbs as Geopolitical Risks Lift Oil Markets
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- October Price Increase: Indonesia’s October 2026 crude price rose $4.43 from September to $117.24 a barrel.
- Global Market Drivers: Higher geopolitical risk premiums and tight oil inventories supported gains across major global benchmarks.
- November Price Outlook: The November price is forecast at $103.94–$108.94 a barrel, with markets watching geopolitical developments and supply conditions.
JAKARTA, Indonesianpost.com — The Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) rose to $117.24 a barrel in October 2026, tracking gains across all major global crude oil benchmarks.
The price increased by $4.43 a barrel from September’s $112.81. The government set the October price through Energy and Mineral Resources Ministerial Decree No. 416.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 on Indonesian Crude Prices for October 2026.
Laode Sulaeman, director general of oil and gas at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said the increase reflected stronger international crude prices as geopolitical tensions drove up risk premiums.
“The average ICP rose to $117.24 a barrel in October 2026, influenced by international market dynamics and escalating geopolitical tensions that increased war risk premiums in global markets. Prices rose across all international benchmarks,” Laode said in a written statement on Thursday, November 12, 2026.
The gains were reflected in several major benchmarks. Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange rose $6.32 to $108.34 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $1.25 to $96.94. Dated Brent increased by $8.00 to $124.77, and the reference basket of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose $1.56 to $112.13 a barrel.
Laode said markets were monitoring potential disruptions to global energy supply chains, particularly the security of energy facilities and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, two key oil shipping routes. Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to their lowest level at one point, he said.
Tight global crude inventories also supported prices. Reports from the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) pointed to limited oil stocks worldwide.
“The EIA reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell to 3.8% below the five-year average. Extremely tight diesel supplies also forced refineries worldwide to process more crude,” Laode said.
For November 2026, the ICP is forecast to range from $103.94 to $108.94 a barrel. Markets are expected to watch political developments in the United States, the direction of global geopolitical policy and persistently low oil inventories.
“However, counterbalancing factors could ease price pressures, including the recovery of oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Isaias and a potential adjustment in risk premiums if global diplomatic efforts begin to yield results,” Laode said.
The government will continue monitoring global oil prices and the factors driving them as part of its efforts to safeguard national energy security.
It also pledged to keep the ICP-setting process transparent and reflective of international market conditions, ensuring accountability in its implications for state finances and upstream oil and gas operations. [Detik/Bilah]
