Tehran Markets Show Cautious Optimism Despite Escalating Conflict

Jakarta – Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated once again, even as indirect negotiations between the two countries continue. While diplomatic efforts remain underway, military exchanges and increasingly hostile rhetoric highlight the fragile security situation across the region.

The US military said it had struck missile launch sites and Iranian vessels allegedly attempting to lay naval mines in southern waters. Iranian state media later reported that its forces had returned fire, adding that casualties were recorded during the incident.

Despite the escalation, there has been no official confirmation that the fragile ceasefire in place since April 8 has collapsed.

Amid the uncertainty, financial markets in Tehran have shown cautious optimism. The Iranian rial strengthened by more than five percent over the past week, although it remains near historic lows against the US dollar.

The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange also rebounded, surpassing the 4 million mark on Tuesday morning local time. The recovery follows a sharp downturn earlier this year triggered by nationwide protests and the threat of war, which reportedly claimed thousands of lives.

Behind the market gains, however, Iran’s economy continues to face significant strain. In addition to domestic mismanagement, Tehran is under mounting pressure from Washington, including a naval blockade targeting key southern ports.

The situation has worsened following a sharp deterioration in Iran’s relations with the United Arab Emirates, which has long served as a critical trade gateway for Iranian imports.

A digital goods trader in central Tehran said supply chains for electronics have become increasingly unstable.

“We are seeing how prices are forcing customers to rethink their purchases. It is not only about higher costs, but also about availability. Items that were in stock last week may already be gone today,” he said, as reported by Al Jazeera.

The Iranian government is now focusing heavily on securing essential supplies such as food and medicine. Although there are no reports yet of a nationwide shortage crisis, rising prices continue to burden the population.

High inflation, industrial damage caused by conflict, and prolonged nationwide internet disruptions have compounded the pressure on ordinary Iranians. President Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly ordered preparations to restore global internet access following the longest shutdown in the country’s history. However, restrictions remained in place as of Tuesday.

Residents in Tehran have begun voicing growing concern about the country’s future. Dariush, a retired construction engineer, described the current “neither war nor peace” situation as highly dangerous if it persists.

“Anything that can end this uncertainty would be welcomed. If it continues, the consequences will be devastating,” he said.

Others remain cautiously hopeful that an agreement between Tehran and Washington can still be reached. A 64-year-old art teacher suggested that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could pressure US President Donald Trump to seek compromise, including the possible release of frozen Iranian assets abroad.

Skepticism remains strong, particularly among younger Iranians. A 23-year-old student expressed doubt that any temporary agreement would meaningfully ease the pressure on the population.

“I think the war will continue after the World Cup,” he said, referring to the tournament hosted jointly by the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Debate is also intensifying among Iran’s political elite. Hardline factions oppose major concessions to Washington, arguing that Iran’s position has strengthened after enduring nearly 40 days of attacks and blockade.

Hardline figure Mahmoud Nabavian has stated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade would run counter to Iran’s national interests.

Meanwhile, conservative outlets such as Keyhan have called for negotiations to be halted altogether, particularly after the United States reportedly denied a visa to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to attend a United Nations Security Council session in New York related to the ongoing conflict.

Indonesianpost.com | Republika