Indonesia’s Dry Season Offers Economic Upside Despite El Niño Risks
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- Indonesia’s upcoming El Niño-driven dry season is expected to reduce rainfall significantly, but BMKG says it could boost salt production and fishery output due to favorable environmental conditions.
- While drought risks increase, the upwelling phenomenon and extended dry weather may enhance marine productivity and support economic gains in fisheries and agriculture.
- The authorities urge balanced strategies to mitigate climate risks while maximizing economic opportunities during one of the driest projected seasons in recent years.
Jakarta – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said on Wednesday that prolonged dry conditions could be leveraged to boost downstream productivity, especially in salt farming and marine capture fisheries.
BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani noted that the reduced rainfall associated with a strong El Niño could significantly improve national salt output while enhancing fish catches due to oceanographic changes.
“Dry conditions driven by a strong El Niño still offer economic opportunities that can be optimized in downstream sectors, such as increasing salt pond production and maximizing fish catches due to upwelling phenomena,” he said during a press briefing in Jakarta.
Faisal explained that, beyond benefiting salt production through minimal rainfall, the dry season also triggers upwelling—an ocean process where nutrient-rich waters rise to the surface—supporting higher marine productivity and potentially boosting fishermen’s yields.
He added that the extended dry spell could also support agricultural gains, particularly for horticultural crops in regions with adequate irrigation systems.
However, despite these economic prospects, BMKG warned of significant risks tied to the intensifying El Niño. Updated climate projections indicate a 62 percent probability of a strong El Niño and a 98 percent likelihood of at least moderate intensity beginning mid-year.
The agency estimates that 482 seasonal zones—covering 56.18 percent of Indonesia’s land area—will experience below-normal rainfall, indicating much drier-than-usual conditions.
The dry season is also expected to last longer than usual in 437 seasonal zones, or nearly half of the country, with peak drought conditions forecast to hit 369 zones in August.
The onset of the dry season is occurring gradually, with 198 zones entering dry conditions in June, followed by an additional 66 zones in July as the drought expands.
Faisal stressed the need for responsive risk management by local governments, particularly in safeguarding public utilities such as reservoir capacity for hydropower operations.
He also called for early preventive measures in the environmental sector, including rapid response mechanisms to mitigate deteriorating air quality that could trigger spikes in respiratory illnesses.
In forestry and disaster management, BMKG urged stronger on-the-ground preparedness to prevent forest and land fires during the peak of the dry season.
The agency emphasized that its updated seasonal forecast should serve as a key reference for policymakers to balance disaster risk mitigation with efforts to capitalize on economic opportunities during the prolonged dry period.
Indonesianpost.com | Antara
