Water Shortage Risks Rise as BMKG Forecasts Prolonged Dry Season

Jakarta — Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued an early warning, urging the public to prepare for a prolonged and drier-than-usual dry season in 2026, with potential impacts spanning water availability, agriculture, public health, and forest fire risks.

BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that the peak of the dry season is expected to occur between July and September 2026, with most regions likely to experience the peak in August.

In July, peak dry conditions are projected to affect 83 Seasonal Zones (Zona Musim/ZOM), covering approximately 12.26 percent of Indonesia’s land area. This figure is expected to rise sharply in August to 369 ZOM, or about 48.84 percent of the country. By September, the number is forecast to decline to 169 ZOM, equivalent to 25.41 percent of the total land area.

“Regions expected to reach peak dry conditions in July 2026 include parts of Sumatra, limited areas of Kalimantan and Java, southern East Nusa Tenggara, northern West Sulawesi, western Central Sulawesi, small parts of Maluku, southern Southwest Papua, central West Papua, and eastern Papua,” Faisal said, as quoted from BMKG’s official statement.

According to BMKG, the peak dry season in August will likely cover central Sumatra, most of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, parts of East Nusa Tenggara, large areas of Kalimantan, sections of Sulawesi, parts of Maluku and North Maluku, as well as most of Papua.

BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan noted that this year’s dry season is expected to be more intense and prolonged than usual, largely influenced by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, which is forecast to persist until early 2027.

“BMKG estimates that El Niño will continue through early 2027, with a 98 percent probability of reaching moderate intensity and a 62 percent chance of becoming strong. Its impact on Indonesia will coincide with the dry season period until mid-October,” Ardhasena explained.

In response to these projections, BMKG has urged stakeholders across sectors to take precautionary measures. Farmers are advised to adjust planting schedules and opt for drought-resistant crop varieties, while water resource managers are encouraged to optimize reservoir management, repair distribution systems, and secure water supply for communities.

The agency also highlighted the need for the energy sector to ensure sufficient water levels in reservoirs supporting hydropower operations. Meanwhile, regional governments are called upon to prepare for potential declines in air quality, which could lead to an increase in acute respiratory infections (ISPA).

BMKG further emphasized the importance of heightened vigilance against drought and forest and land fires during the dry season. Mitigation efforts are being strengthened in coordination with local governments and stakeholders, including the potential use of weather modification operations when atmospheric conditions permit.

Faisal added that the seasonal forecast should serve as a key reference for policymakers, businesses, and communities in formulating mitigation and adaptation strategies.

“BMKG continues to actively communicate, coordinate, and provide assistance to regional stakeholders, including local governments, disaster mitigation agencies, and other institutions requiring detailed climate information and adaptive strategies,” he said.

The agency also reminded the public to rely on official channels for weather and climate updates to ensure access to accurate and verified information.

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