El Niño 2026 Could Trigger Water Crisis Across Indonesia

Jakarta – The warning was delivered by University of Maryland professor R. Dwi Susanto during the Deep-Sea Science Forum: Toward Deep Sea Mission 2045 on Sunday. Drawing on observational data and climate modeling, he highlighted significant changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions across the Pacific.

“Multiple observations and climate models suggest evolving ocean conditions in the Pacific that are consistent with El Niño formation. One key signal is the increasing subsurface heat content, which may drive warm water masses eastward,” Dwi said, as quoted by the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

He explained that Kelvin waves — large-scale subsurface ocean waves traveling along the equator — are now pushing warm water from the western Pacific toward the eastern Pacific. This movement is widely recognized as a hallmark of El Niño development.

These changes can be monitored through several indicators, including subsurface ocean temperatures, sea level variations, and wind patterns across the tropical Pacific. International climate models are also showing consistent trends, reinforcing concerns about the event’s potential intensity.

Dwi emphasized that Indonesia plays a central role in the global climate system, not merely as a region affected by El Niño. The country sits within the western Pacific warm pool, the warmest tropical ocean region on Earth, and is traversed by the Indonesian Throughflow, a major ocean current linking the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

This strategic position makes Indonesia a critical area for climate observation. Monitoring sea temperatures, the dynamics of the Indonesian Throughflow, and shifts in atmospheric convection over the maritime continent is essential for early detection and climate forecasting.

The situation becomes more concerning with the potential interaction between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). According to Dwi, the impacts of El Niño could intensify significantly if accompanied by a positive IOD phase.

“We cannot rely solely on El Niño indices. The state of the Indian Ocean Dipole must also be closely observed, as the combination of both phenomena can produce far more severe impacts than either alone,” he said.

He pointed to the 1997–1998 climate crisis as a stark example, when a strong El Niño coincided with a positive IOD, triggering prolonged drought, drastic rainfall reduction, and widespread forest and land fires across Indonesia.

The development of a positive IOD can typically be detected through cooling sea surface temperatures south of Java and Sumatra — a pattern often associated with increased drought risk.

Given the mounting signals, Dwi urged immediate mitigation measures, including improved water resource management, adjustments in agricultural planting cycles, and stronger wildfire prevention efforts.

“Preparation must begin now, but without causing unnecessary alarm. The key is ensuring that climate information is effectively used to support planning and mitigation strategies,” he concluded.

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