Rising Heat Risks as WMO Signals High Probability of El Niño 2026

Jakarta – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a developing El Niño event could drive higher global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns in the coming months, increasing the risk of extreme weather across multiple regions.

In its latest El Niño–La Niña update, the WMO said the probability of El Niño forming between June and August 2026 stands at around 80 percent. The likelihood of the phenomenon persisting through November rises to nearly or above 90 percent.

Although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and peak intensity, most forecast models indicate that the event will reach at least moderate strength, with the potential to become strong.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the expected arrival of El Niño as an urgent climate warning. “The science is clear. El Niño will emerge in the coming months with about 90 percent certainty. The world must treat this as an urgent climate signal,” he said in a video statement published on the WMO website.

Guterres stressed that El Niño will amplify the impacts of ongoing global warming, making them more intense, widespread and faster-moving across borders.

He called for accelerated climate action, including reducing dependence on fossil fuels, speeding up the transition to renewable energy, protecting vulnerable communities and ensuring universal access to early warning systems.

WMO observations show that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific—key regions for monitoring the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—approached El Niño thresholds between late April and mid-May.

This warming is being driven by significantly higher-than-average subsurface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. In some areas, subsurface temperatures have exceeded normal levels by more than 6 degrees Celsius, creating a large reservoir of heat that continues to fuel surface warming.

Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric indicator linked to El Niño, has also shown patterns consistent with its development.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the world must prepare for the possibility of a strong El Niño, which could intensify droughts, increase extreme rainfall and trigger heatwaves on both land and in the oceans.

She noted that the 2023–2024 El Niño was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record-breaking global temperatures observed in 2024.

“We need to be ready for the possibility of a strong El Niño. Seasonal forecasts and early warning systems are critical to saving lives and reducing economic and social impacts,” Saulo said.

El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, one of the most influential climate patterns on Earth. It is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.

It usually begins developing between March and June, peaks between November and February and has its strongest global temperature impacts in the following year.

The WMO emphasized that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. However, global warming can amplify their impacts, as warmer oceans and atmospheres provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

The effects of El Niño vary by region. It is generally associated with increased rainfall in southern parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. In contrast, drier conditions are typically observed in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia.

The WMO also warned that the June–August 2026 period is likely to see above-average temperatures across most parts of the world. This raises the risk of heat stress, intensifies interconnected climate hazards and accelerates the development of drought in areas experiencing reduced rainfall.

Global precipitation forecasts reflect a typical El Niño pattern, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and flooding in some regions and prolonged drought in others.

Regional climate forums coordinated by the WMO have already identified early impacts. The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum predicts a high probability of below-normal rainfall during the main June–September rainy season. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum also projects below-average monsoon rainfall, while Central America is expected to experience hotter and drier conditions.

The WMO said it will continue to monitor El Niño developments in the coming months and provide updated information to governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors to support timely decision-making and mitigation efforts.

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